The Oscar nominations for the films released in 2011 will be out on 24th January 2012. Here are my predictions:
The Artist
Hugo
The Descendants
Midnight in Paris
The Help
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
War Horse
Moneyball
If they go for 10 films:
The Tree of Life
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
The last two spots could also easily be taken by:
The Ides of March
Bridesmaids
Drive
I'm certain the 8 films will show up on the Best Picture list. But will there be 8 films? or maybe even 7? War Horse could be in trouble if there are 7 but I don't see that happening. Moneyball or War Horse could get the boot. Could be 10 too. This year the Oscars decided to choose between 5 to 10 films, because of which literally NOBODY knows how many there are really going to be. If there were 5, it would be very easy to pick: The Artist, Hugo, The Descendants, Midnight in Paris and The Help. But then there's also the late showing of The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo and also the late unshowing of War Horse. According to most, Dragon Tattoo performed really well at the Guilds and War Horse did not. While I obviously agree with that statement, I also feel the the only inference to made out of the Guild nominations is that The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo is a strong contender. It is. But is War Horse really out of the race? I honestly think it isn't. It is very much in. The Guilds can lead you to make some generalizations like The Diving Bell and the Butterfly will be nominated for Best Picture. The Dark Knight will be nominated for Best Picture. In a year where there are more than 5 nominees, The Dark Knight and the Diving Bell and the Butterfly would make it. So would Black Hawk Down, Shrek, Road to Perdition, Adaptation, Far From Heaven, Cold Mountain, City of God, Finding Nemo, Vera Drake, Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind, The Incredibles, Walk the Line, Dreamgirls, Pan's Labyrinth, Ratatouille and Wall-E. All of these titles would have mostly been Best Picture nominees.
But this year it is more about what the Guilds DON'T show. For example, The Reader is not a strong contender. Letters from Iwo Jima is not a strong contender. Well, guess what! They totes were!
This year it is War Horse and The Tree of Life. Maybe even Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy and Drive.
Spielberg and Malick have both got love from the Academy before. The former way more than the latter, of course. Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy could easily take the British voters spot. The Brits do have a strong showing at the Oscars. (Yes, last year's catastrophe included) Films like The King's Speech, Slumdog Millionaire, An Education, The Reader, Atonement, The Queen and Vera Drake have all got love. They are made by a predominantly British cast and crew. The only Brit who the Academy refuses to embrace is Christopher Nolan. Nolan has 0 Oscar nominations for Best Director. Yes, ladies and gentlemen. Tom Hooper is an Oscar winner, Christopher Nolan is not. Oh yeah, even David Fincher isn't. Enough to convince you The Oscars don't really reward the "best"? It is a popularity contest disguised as a barometer for cinematic excellence. It does that job pretty darn well. If they were rewarding the best, The Social Network would have swept the major awards last year. It would be understandable if the AMPAS garlands Dragon Tattoo with nominations just to apologize. But that wouldn't be the only reason. It is also a great film that deserves to be there.
Drive is a critical darling but its lack of Guild and Golden Globe support is troublesome. (Lack of Guild mainly means not even PGA, to be honest). The critics' spot is more likely to be taken by The Tree of Life. If it will. That's another film without the Guild and GG support which has more chances of pulling through.
The guilds also have the extra fat around the edges. They nominate films like The Town, Star Trek, My Big Fat Greek Wedding. Films that don't show up even when there are more than 5 spots. Mostly commercial successes. That spot will go to Bridesmaids. Films like The Last Samurai and Invictus are the early momentum films. They run out of steam later. That spot I think this year went to The Ides of March.
The Ides of March is still a big question mark, though. It could be one of those films everyone was underestimating, taking for granted. It is one of those films that could cause a big upset on Tuesday. I personally believe a mediocre film such as this shouldn't. Bridesmaids on the other hand, should get nominated. But it won't get nominated mostly because it's a mainstream comedy (Sad. Very sad). They can nominate comedies like Midnight in Paris or Juno but not Bridesmaids. Besides, they already have a film which can take The Blind Side spot. The underdog film which came out of nowhere, is about woman power and became a big commercial success. The Help is more up their alley than Bridesmaids. They are getting a Blind Side in the guise of The Color Purple, how could they resist?
One note I'd like to make in the Best Picture predictions is the certain non-nomination of The Adventures of Tintin. The spot that previously went to Up and Toy Story 3 in the Best Picture list proves that the Academy saves a spot for Pixar films and not for animation films. The Adventures of Tintin is absolutely brilliant but it sadly didn't get a good reception in the United States. The Oscars are dominated by the Americana. (Would The Artist be lauded if it wasn't set in in Hollywood?). How much ever you may deny it, it is about what films America is embracing NOW. Not the BEST films America is embracing. I can't point out a reason why the critics and the movie-going public didn't take to Tintin. The only stupid reason (if there is a reason, it has to be stupid right? It's a GREAT film) I can think of, is that they were really really pissed about Steven Spielberg showing his film all across the globe first, bringing it to his home audience a month later. Of course, America will appreciate Tintin some years from now. Well, they should.
After that rant, I must move onto the other categories.
Michel Hazanavicius - The Artist
Alexander Payne - The Descendants
Martin Scorsese - Hugo
Woody Allen - Midnight in Paris
Terrence Malick - The Tree of Life
Alternates:
David Fincher - The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo (They do have to apologize for last year's fuck up)
Steven Spielberg - War Horse
The last spot will be tricky. The first four are locks. I have a strong feeling Fincher will take the last spot. Putting Terrence Malick in the five above is partly because of wishful thinking and partly because of Malick's status.
George Clooney - The Descendants
Jean Dujardin - The Artist
Brad Pitt - Moneyball
Leonardo DiCaprio - J. Edgar
Michael Fassbender - Shame
Alternates:
Gary Oldman - Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
Michael Shannon - Take Shelter
Meryl Streep - The Iron Lady
Viola Davis - The Help
Glenn Close - Albert Nobbs
Michelle Williams - My Week with Marilyn
Tilda Swinton - We Need To Talk About Kevin
Alternates:
Rooney Mara - The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Charlize Theron - Young Adult
Christopher Plummer - Beginners
Albert Brooks - Drive
Kenneth Branagh - My Week with Marilyn
Jonah Hill - Moneyball
Nick Nolte - Warrior
Alternates:
Patton Oswalt - Young Adult
Armie Hammer - J. Edgar
The most deserving supporting actor nomination that most likely won't happen:
Brad Pitt - The Tree of Life
BEST FILM EDITING
A Separation
In Darkness
Footnote
Pina
Monsieur Lazhar
Alternate:
Bullhead
Alternate:
Puss in Boots
Hugo
The Artist
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
War Horse
Alternates:
Anonymous
The Artist
Hugo
The Help
Jane Eyre
Anonymous
Alternates:
W.E.
My Week with Marilyn
Hugo
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
The Tree of Life
Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Captain America: The First Avenger
Alternates:
Transformers 3
Pirates of the Caribbean 4
The Artist
Hugo
War Horse
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
The Adventures of Tintin
Alternate:
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
Coeur Volant - Hugo
Life's A Happy Song - The Muppets
Pictures in My Head - The Muppets
Hello Hello - Gnomeo and Juliet
The Living Proof - The Help
Alternate:
Star Spangled Man - Captain America
Hugo
Super 8
Mission Impossible Ghost Protocol
The Artist
War Horse
Alternates:
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
Transformers 3
Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides
Hugo
Super 8
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Drive
The Adventures of Tintin
Alternates:
Transformers 3
Fast Five
Mission Impossible Ghost Protocol
Hugo
The Iron Lady
Gainsbourg: A Heroic Life
Alternate:
The Artist
BEST PICTURE
The Artist
Hugo
The Descendants
Midnight in Paris
The Help
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
War Horse
Moneyball
If they go for 10 films:
The Tree of Life
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
The last two spots could also easily be taken by:
The Ides of March
Bridesmaids
Drive
I'm certain the 8 films will show up on the Best Picture list. But will there be 8 films? or maybe even 7? War Horse could be in trouble if there are 7 but I don't see that happening. Moneyball or War Horse could get the boot. Could be 10 too. This year the Oscars decided to choose between 5 to 10 films, because of which literally NOBODY knows how many there are really going to be. If there were 5, it would be very easy to pick: The Artist, Hugo, The Descendants, Midnight in Paris and The Help. But then there's also the late showing of The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo and also the late unshowing of War Horse. According to most, Dragon Tattoo performed really well at the Guilds and War Horse did not. While I obviously agree with that statement, I also feel the the only inference to made out of the Guild nominations is that The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo is a strong contender. It is. But is War Horse really out of the race? I honestly think it isn't. It is very much in. The Guilds can lead you to make some generalizations like The Diving Bell and the Butterfly will be nominated for Best Picture. The Dark Knight will be nominated for Best Picture. In a year where there are more than 5 nominees, The Dark Knight and the Diving Bell and the Butterfly would make it. So would Black Hawk Down, Shrek, Road to Perdition, Adaptation, Far From Heaven, Cold Mountain, City of God, Finding Nemo, Vera Drake, Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind, The Incredibles, Walk the Line, Dreamgirls, Pan's Labyrinth, Ratatouille and Wall-E. All of these titles would have mostly been Best Picture nominees.
But this year it is more about what the Guilds DON'T show. For example, The Reader is not a strong contender. Letters from Iwo Jima is not a strong contender. Well, guess what! They totes were!
This year it is War Horse and The Tree of Life. Maybe even Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy and Drive.
Spielberg and Malick have both got love from the Academy before. The former way more than the latter, of course. Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy could easily take the British voters spot. The Brits do have a strong showing at the Oscars. (Yes, last year's catastrophe included) Films like The King's Speech, Slumdog Millionaire, An Education, The Reader, Atonement, The Queen and Vera Drake have all got love. They are made by a predominantly British cast and crew. The only Brit who the Academy refuses to embrace is Christopher Nolan. Nolan has 0 Oscar nominations for Best Director. Yes, ladies and gentlemen. Tom Hooper is an Oscar winner, Christopher Nolan is not. Oh yeah, even David Fincher isn't. Enough to convince you The Oscars don't really reward the "best"? It is a popularity contest disguised as a barometer for cinematic excellence. It does that job pretty darn well. If they were rewarding the best, The Social Network would have swept the major awards last year. It would be understandable if the AMPAS garlands Dragon Tattoo with nominations just to apologize. But that wouldn't be the only reason. It is also a great film that deserves to be there.
Drive is a critical darling but its lack of Guild and Golden Globe support is troublesome. (Lack of Guild mainly means not even PGA, to be honest). The critics' spot is more likely to be taken by The Tree of Life. If it will. That's another film without the Guild and GG support which has more chances of pulling through.
The guilds also have the extra fat around the edges. They nominate films like The Town, Star Trek, My Big Fat Greek Wedding. Films that don't show up even when there are more than 5 spots. Mostly commercial successes. That spot will go to Bridesmaids. Films like The Last Samurai and Invictus are the early momentum films. They run out of steam later. That spot I think this year went to The Ides of March.
The Ides of March is still a big question mark, though. It could be one of those films everyone was underestimating, taking for granted. It is one of those films that could cause a big upset on Tuesday. I personally believe a mediocre film such as this shouldn't. Bridesmaids on the other hand, should get nominated. But it won't get nominated mostly because it's a mainstream comedy (Sad. Very sad). They can nominate comedies like Midnight in Paris or Juno but not Bridesmaids. Besides, they already have a film which can take The Blind Side spot. The underdog film which came out of nowhere, is about woman power and became a big commercial success. The Help is more up their alley than Bridesmaids. They are getting a Blind Side in the guise of The Color Purple, how could they resist?
One note I'd like to make in the Best Picture predictions is the certain non-nomination of The Adventures of Tintin. The spot that previously went to Up and Toy Story 3 in the Best Picture list proves that the Academy saves a spot for Pixar films and not for animation films. The Adventures of Tintin is absolutely brilliant but it sadly didn't get a good reception in the United States. The Oscars are dominated by the Americana. (Would The Artist be lauded if it wasn't set in in Hollywood?). How much ever you may deny it, it is about what films America is embracing NOW. Not the BEST films America is embracing. I can't point out a reason why the critics and the movie-going public didn't take to Tintin. The only stupid reason (if there is a reason, it has to be stupid right? It's a GREAT film) I can think of, is that they were really really pissed about Steven Spielberg showing his film all across the globe first, bringing it to his home audience a month later. Of course, America will appreciate Tintin some years from now. Well, they should.
After that rant, I must move onto the other categories.
BEST DIRECTOR
Michel Hazanavicius - The Artist
Alexander Payne - The Descendants
Martin Scorsese - Hugo
Woody Allen - Midnight in Paris
Terrence Malick - The Tree of Life
Alternates:
David Fincher - The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo (They do have to apologize for last year's fuck up)
Steven Spielberg - War Horse
The last spot will be tricky. The first four are locks. I have a strong feeling Fincher will take the last spot. Putting Terrence Malick in the five above is partly because of wishful thinking and partly because of Malick's status.
BEST ACTOR
George Clooney - The Descendants
Jean Dujardin - The Artist
Brad Pitt - Moneyball
Leonardo DiCaprio - J. Edgar
Michael Fassbender - Shame
Alternates:
Gary Oldman - Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
Michael Shannon - Take Shelter
BEST ACTRESS
Meryl Streep - The Iron Lady
Viola Davis - The Help
Glenn Close - Albert Nobbs
Michelle Williams - My Week with Marilyn
Tilda Swinton - We Need To Talk About Kevin
Alternates:
Rooney Mara - The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Charlize Theron - Young Adult
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Christopher Plummer - Beginners
Albert Brooks - Drive
Kenneth Branagh - My Week with Marilyn
Jonah Hill - Moneyball
Nick Nolte - Warrior
Alternates:
Patton Oswalt - Young Adult
Armie Hammer - J. Edgar
The most deserving supporting actor nomination that most likely won't happen:
Brad Pitt - The Tree of Life
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Jessica Chastain - The Help
Octavia Spenser - The Help
Bernice Bejo - The Artist
Shailene Woodley - The Descendants
Melissa McCarthy - Bridesmaids
Alternate:
Janet McTeer - Albert Nobbs
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Midnight in Paris
The Artist
Bridesmaids
Young Adult
A Separation
Alternate:
50/50
Win Win
Beginners
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Moneyball
The Descendants
Hugo
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
The Help
Alternate:
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
The Ides of MarchBEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
The Tree of Life
The Artist
Hugo
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
Alternate:
War Horse
BEST FILM EDITING
The Artist
Hugo
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
War Horse
The Descendants
Alternates:
Midnight in Paris
Moneyball
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
A Separation
In Darkness
Footnote
Pina
Monsieur Lazhar
Alternate:
Bullhead
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
The Adventures of Tintin
Rango
Arthur Christmas
Kung Fu Panda 2
Cars 2
Alternate:
Puss in Boots
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Project Nim
Buck
Pina
Hell and Back Again
Bill Cunningham New York
Alternates:
Paradise Lost 3: Puragtory
We Were Here
BEST ART DIRECTION
Hugo
The Artist
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
War Horse
Alternates:
Anonymous
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
The Artist
Hugo
The Help
Jane Eyre
Anonymous
Alternates:
W.E.
My Week with Marilyn
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Hugo
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
The Tree of Life
Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Captain America: The First Avenger
Alternates:
Transformers 3
Pirates of the Caribbean 4
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
The Artist
Hugo
War Horse
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
The Adventures of Tintin
Alternate:
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Coeur Volant - Hugo
Life's A Happy Song - The Muppets
Pictures in My Head - The Muppets
Hello Hello - Gnomeo and Juliet
The Living Proof - The Help
Alternate:
Star Spangled Man - Captain America
BEST SOUND MIXING
Hugo
Super 8
Mission Impossible Ghost Protocol
The Artist
War Horse
Alternates:
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
Transformers 3
Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides
BEST SOUND EDITING
Hugo
Super 8
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Drive
The Adventures of Tintin
Alternates:
Transformers 3
Fast Five
Mission Impossible Ghost Protocol
BEST MAKE UP
Hugo
The Iron Lady
Gainsbourg: A Heroic Life
Alternate:
The Artist
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