Oscar Predictions 2015

Welcome to the worst Oscar season of the current century. It all started when the real best film of the 2014, Boyhood, got unanimous critical praise. Why wouldn’t it? It’s one of the greatest movies ever made. Then the awards followed. Golden Globes, Critics Choice Awards. It seemed like a done deal.

It was being talked about for a while but the initial awards glory drowned out the signals. The Academy doesn’t love Boyhood that much.

I’ve been Oscar-watching since 1999 when my favorite film of the year was defeated by American Beauty. I was hurt. How could they not give the best film of the year the top prize? The next year, Gladiator defeated Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon and Almost Famous wasn’t even nominated. Then, A Beautiful Mind defeated Lord of the Rings and Moulin Rouge. I wondered why certain films win and the others don’t. Not that I didn’t love American Beauty, Gladiator or A Beautiful Mind but I started thinking – is my choice not good enough? Who are these people who call themselves the Academy and why do they get to award a certain film ‘the Best’? I was a teenager who was just beginning to form opinions.

Later I predicted Chicago, Million Dollar Baby and Crash to win. Statistics and most importantly listening to the buzz and how the buzz can really shift, not once but twice. I was getting it. There were two instances where my favorite films of the year coincided with the Academy’s – Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King (2003) and No Country for Old Men (2007). I was thinking it’s happening again after 8 years when Boyhood takes the gold. Alas, the curse of the shifting buzz struck. This happened to Brokeback Mountain and The Social Network. Both films were on their way to win Best Picture when suddenly Crash and The King’s Speech started winning and Oscar voters spoke. We like this movie, not that one. The one that critics or the general audience likes.

Birdman is that film this year. It is exactly what the Oscars like. It battles two of its enemies – critics and superhero movies. It glorifies the Academy members, mostly comprised of actors. They really like movies about them (The Artist, Argo are recent examples). How could this not be that film they like. As Mark Harris wrote on twitter: Birdman is about someone who hopes to create something as good as Boyhood. It all makes perfect sense.

When The King’s Speech won the PGA, DGA and SAG awards, I had to change my predictions and dump The Social Network. Although, this is no fun. If you just look at the weather forecast and tell people it’s going to rain, it's a pedestrian approach. You never know what happens. I stuck it out for David Fincher and predicted he would take the director prize over Tom Hooper, at least. He didn’t. This year I should do the same, predict Birdman to win, but I won’t. You should put your money on Birdman to win. It has all the stats for it and the buzz. I’m letting my personal preferences cloud my sane judgment but this year is different. It’s no King’s Speech, a film I liked. I despise Birdman and its gimmickry and narcissism and if I have to be wrong about it, I’ll take it. I can't predict a film to win, stroke my ego and call myself a great predictor. That would be everything Birdman stands for and I won't give in. I will stand with Boyhood because it truly deserves the award and these films don't come every year.

And I do have reasons for a hoping Boyhood still has a chance:

1) The Best Picture award is selected with preferential voting. It’s a complicated process but basically the number 2 and 3 votes also count. The films that get lowest votes get eliminated. I have a feeling Birdman is expected to have more votes at the bottom than Boyhood.

2) The last time a film won Best Picture without an editing nomination was Ordinary People (1980), 34 years ago. Birdman has no editing nomination. Only 9 films out of 86 have won without earning this nomination. 

3) The BAFTAs brought the momentum back for Boyhood. They voted for The King’s Speech and 12 Years A Slave over The Social Network and Gravity. A chunk of BAFTA members are Academy members too.

4) Usually, the Oscars go for a film with more heart than the cynical one. Take The Social Network and The King’s Speech. Unless there are two cynical films which are fighting it out like when No Country for Old Men and There Will Be Blood were head to head. 

5) PGA, DGA and SAG award winners always win the top prize. There is one exception, Apollo 13 won all three but lost picture and director to Braveheart. It was 19 years ago and it’s rare but it can happen.

Here goes:

BEST PICTURE

Will win: Boyhood

Could win: Birdman

Should win: Boyhood

BEST DIRECTOR

Will win: Richard Linklater, Boyhood

Could win: Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Birdman

Should win: Richard Linklater, Boyhood

BEST ACTOR

Will win: Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything

Could win: Michael Keaton, Birdman/ Bradley Cooper, American Sniper

Should win: Benedict Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game

BEST ACTRESS

Will and should win: Julianne Moore, Still Alice

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Will and should win: J.K. Simmons, Whiplash

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Will and should win: Patricia Arquette, Boyhood

BEST ORIGINAL  SCREENPLAY

Will win: The Grand Budapest Hotel

Could win: Birdman

Should win: The Grand Budapest Hotel/ Boyhood

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Will win: Whiplash

Could win: The Imitation Game/ American Sniper

Should win: Whiplash/ The Imitation Game

BEST FILM EDITING

Will win: Boyhood

Could win: Whiplash

Should win: Whiplash/ Boyhood

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Will and should win: How To Train Your Dragon 2

Could win: Big Hero 6
Should have been nominated: The Book of Life

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

Will win: Ida

Could win: Leviathan/ Wild Tales

Should win: Ida/ Wild Tales

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Will win: Birdman

Could win: The Grand Budapest Hotel

Should win: The Grand Budapest Hotel/ Ida

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

Will and should win: The Grand Budapest Hotel

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Will and should win: The Grand Budapest Hotel

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

Will and should win: The Grand Budapest Hotel

Could win: The Theory of Everything

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

Will win: Glory from Selma

Could win: I’m Not Gonna Miss You from Glen Campbell… I’ll Be Me

Should win: Lost Stars/ Everything is Awesome/ Grateful

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Will and should win: Interstellar

Could (also should) win: Dawn of the Planet of the Apes/ Guardians of the Galaxy

BEST SOUND MIXING

Will win: Whiplash

Could win: Birdman/ American Sniper

Should win: Whiplash/ Interstellar

BEST SOUND EDITING

Will win: American Sniper

Could win: Birdman

Should win: Interstellar/ Whiplash

BEST MAKE UP AND HAIRSTYLING

Will win: The Grand Budapest Hotel

Could win: Foxcatcher

Should win: The Grand Budapest Hotel/ Guardians of the Galaxy

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Will win: Citizenfour

Could win: Virunga

Should have been nominated and won: Life Itself

These are my predictions, except for Picture and Director. I’m sticking with what I think should win and letting it spill over what will win. It’s rare when you get films like Boyhood and I’ll stick it out till the end. Although, if Birdman wins and it probably will, it won’t take just Picture, Director and Cinematography (or it will and the Academy won't completely embarrass itself). It would also take Best Actor and Original Screenplay along with it. If they really love it, sound awards are on the cards as well. When you’re watching the Oscar telecast and if Birdman starts to win the sound awards and screenplay, you can bet it’s over. I still won’t. Now let this end and I hope for a major Birdman backlash to hit (which I will be a part of) and Boyhood is remembered as the film that deserved to win and joins the likes of Citizen Kane, The Graduate, Raging Bull, Pulp Fiction, The Shawshank Redemption (current IMDb number one), Saving Private Ryan, Brokeback Mountain and The Social Network as the classics that stand the test of time.