Way back before the Guilds, Globes or BAFTAs announced their winners, 2012 was a year where the race for the big Oscar win was wide open. Argo was the early front-runner, Silver Linings Playbook won the audience award at Toronto and crushed it, then came two waves in the form of Life of Pi and Lincoln, each with a passionate support and steady box office might. The late-surge for Zero Dark Thirty, Les Miserables and Django Unchained surfaced. Zero Dark Thirty became a critics favorite only for the torture controversy to wash it all down. Les Miserables got trashed for the close-ups, Django was deemed "not as good as Inglourious Basterds" which it isn't but it's still Tarantino and still so good.
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| "Argofuckme, I wuz snubbed. Plan B: Mope till you win an Oscar" |
Moonrise Kingdom seemed on its way to pick up a Best Picture nomination, (which was probably the only thing I was truly looking forward to in terms of Oscar breaking new ground) but when the nominees were announced, it was predictably missing. Amour and Beasts of the Southern Wild which seemed like potential threats, ended up being major surprises when they garnered not just nominations for Best Picture but Director, Actress and Screenplay as well. Another big story was the Argo snub. It was nominated for Best Picture and 6 more but no Best Director nomination.
When the nominees were announced Argo was deemed out of the race. Lincoln vs. Life of Pi vs. Silver Linings Playbook - this was the consensus. Little did we know that an Oscar snub would not be Argo's Achilles' Heel but Poseidon's trident. Argo did not just win the Golden Globe, Critics Choice award and the BAFTA for Best Film but cleaned up every guild award that came its way. It seemed like a race that everyone thought was open, never ever was. Just like The Artist last year and The King's Speech before that, the Oscar race had been over long before the ballots were filled. Argo is about to be one of the very few films to win the Oscar for Best Picture without a nomination for Director. The last time that happened was in 1990 when Driving Miss Day (1989) took home the big win. Is that an indicator for quality? Let's not digress.
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| "Harvey got me nominaaaatteeddd" "He got me nominated AGAAAAIIINNNN" |
Argo is indeed a very good film but better than more than half of those nominees? No way. Then again, I do not vote for the Oscars. The members of the academy do. They showed they don't love Argo enough by not giving it the Best Director nod. They simply love other films more. But can the Argo tide stop? Can Lincoln or Silver Linings Playbook actually surf their way up to the top? I doubt it. One thing I've seen in the past few years is the Academy loves to play it safe. That being said, this is a year which could indeed offer multiple surprises. I was surprised I did well in my predictions last year (17/21 as you can see here: http://bit.ly/W9tBD4) but I know I won't do better this year so I've taken a different road this time. (To avoid looking looking stupid?)
Here are my predictions:
BEST PICTURE
Will win: Argo
Could win: Silver Linings Playbook
Should win: Life of Pi/ Lincoln
BEST DIRECTOR
Will win: David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook
Could win: Michael Haneke/ Steven Spielberg
Should win: Ang Lee
BEST ACTOR
Will and should win: Daniel Day Lewis, Lincoln
Could win (highly improbable): Joaquin Phoenix, The Master/ Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables
BEST ACTRESS
Will and should win: Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
Could win: Emanuelle Riva, Amour
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Will win: Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln
Could win: Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained/ Robert De Niro, Silver Linings Playbook
Should win: Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Will win: Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables
Could win: Sally Field, Lincoln
Should win: Amy Adams, The Master
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Will win: Django Unchained
Could win: Amour
Should win: Moonrise Kingdom
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Will win: Argo
Could win: Silver Linings Playbook
Should win: Lincoln (If there is one award Lincoln truly deserves apart from Actor, it is this)
BEST ANIMATED FILM
Will win: Brave
Could win: Wreck-It Ralph
Should really really win: Frankenweenie
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Will and should win: Amour
Could win: No
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Will win: Life of Pi
Could win: Skyfall
Should win: This is tricky, Life of Pi is clearly the best but ROGER DEAKINS STILL HAS ZERO OSCARS
BEST FILM EDITING
Will win: Argo
Could win: Silver Linings Playbook
Should win: Life of Pi
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Will win: Anna Karenina
Could win: Les Miserables/ Lincoln
Should win: Mirror Mirror
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Will and should win: Life of Pi
Could win: Anna Karenina/ Les Miserables
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Will and should win: Life of Pi
Could win: The Avengers
BEST SOUND MIXING
Will win: Les Miserables
Could win: Argo
Should win: Life of Pi/ Skyfall
BEST SOUND EDITING
Will win and should: Life of Pi
Could win: Skyfall
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Will and should win: Life of Pi
Could win: Argo
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Will win and should win: Skyfall, Skyfall
Another should win: Pi's Lullaby, Life of Pi
BEST MAKEUP
Will win: Les Miserables
Could win: The Hobbit
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Will win: Searching for Sugarman
Could win: The Gatekeepers
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| Still winning the most Oscars, bitches! |
Life of Pi - 5
Argo - 3
Les Miserables - 3
Lincoln - 2
Silver Linings Playbook - 2
Django, Amour, Skyfall and Anna Karenina - 1
Zero Dark Thirty and Beasts of the Southern Wild shut out
What I want:
Lincoln to take the major awards like Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actor and Screenplay. I love Life of Pi but Lincoln is a film that at least Americans deserve to call Best Picture instead of a Best Hollywood movie. Hell, I don't even mind Silver Linings Playbook winning the major ones.
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| Will I win? Say AYYYEEEEEE! |
Amour and/ or Silver Linings Playbook winning more
Life of Pi winning 4 (It could lose Production Design or Score)
Best Director/ Supporting Actor and the Screenplay categories are anybody's guesses
Argo is already the Best Picture winner and could easily win each category it is nominated in if the Academy chickens out.
Here's to a better season next year.
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